Well, that was a lovely break. Now back to work.
If any of you are like me, you like to make wagers on things you're really familiar with, in a chance to win some extra money on the side.
I'm here to help you get an edge in your office Oscar pool this year, or if you don't have one, give you the knowledge to make a bet with your friends and co-workers about who will win what in the upcoming Oscar race. I AM NOT LIABLE FOR YOUR LOSSES IF MY PREDICTIONS ARE WRONG, just throwing that out there.
Now then, on to what everyone wants to see:
BEST PICTURE:
Okay, here's the deal. This year, a lot of people seem to think the Academy Awards have somehow been replaced by the People's Choice Awards. THEY HAVEN'T. Social Network was an excellent movie, I'm not contesting that, but The King's Speech was MADE to win Oscars. It has all the necessary elements.
Bank your money on The King's Speech.
There may be a small, maybe 5%, chance that The Social Network will win, but I doubt it.
There are some wild cards this year though. As outspoken as Hollywood is on issues involving GLBT, a wild card win for The Kids Are All Right is possible. Especially one that's accompanied by a repeal of Prop 8 in California, which if my information is correct, is happening around the same time as the Oscars.
MOST LIKELY: The King's Speech.
WILD CARD: The Social Network, The Kids Are All Right
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Colin Firth will win this for King George VI, and quite frankly, he deserves to win. James Franco was spectacular as Aron Ralston, Jeff Bridges' Rooster Cogburn was tremendous, and Jesse Eisenberg's portrayal of Mark Zuckerberg will be talked about for as long as Facebook is around. But none of them can beat a movie that was made to win Oscars, especially with someone as tremendous as Colin Firth helming it.
MOST LIKELY: Colin Firth.
WILD CARD: Jeff Bridges.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Dear Christian Bale, here is your Oscar. Please don't suck in Dark Knight Rises.
MOST LIKELY: Christian Bale.
WILD CARD: Not necessary.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Okay, here's one that a lot of people see as a no-contest, but I disagree. Natalie Portman is 90% likely to win for Black Swan, but here's the kick: The Academy voters are mostly old people who appreciate socially and politically charged movies like The King's Speech more than artistically haunting movies like Black Swan. And Natalie Portman has a fierce contender in this category who's movie was more socially charged than any movie I've ever seen. I'm speaking, of course, about Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right. She was excellent in the movie, and the Academy, historically, really enjoys Bening's work. So don't be so quick to back the much more artistic and sexual Black Swan, remember, this isn't the People's Choice Awards.
MOST LIKELY: Natalie Portman.
WILD CARD: Annette Bening.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
The hardest major category to predict this year, surprisingly. First of all, anyone who has seen True Grit will agree that Hailee Steinfeld is the LEAD IN THE MOVIE, not a SUPPORTING ACTRESS. That aside, she is less likely to win, due entirely to her age, than say, Amy Adams or Melissa Leo for The Fighter. Personally, I'm backing Steinfeld, but I have gone back and forth between her and Leo for the Oscar.
MOST LIKELY: Hailee Steinfeld OR Melissa Leo
WILD CARD: Whichever one of those two you didn't back.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
Sorry other two studios, but hey, at least the only movie Pixar is putting out (so far) in 2011 is a Cars sequel. You can beat that, right? ...right?
MOST LIKELY: Toy Story 3
WILD CARD: Toy Story 3
ART DIRECTION:
Don't let the title confuse you. The most important thing to remember is that James Cameron's Avatar won last year, meaning CGI is still a green-light for an Oscar in this category. That being said, I have odds that Inception walk with this, but it's possible that Harry Potter will take this as well.
MOST LIKELY: Inception
WILD CARD: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Not to be confused with the above category, but still won by Avatar last year, causing most of the confusion this year. The best thing to do in categories like this (unlike Art Direction) is to look at the names tied to each movie. The one that should stand out to movie aficionados is Wally Pfister, Christopher Nolan's cinematographer, i.e. The Dark Knight, The Prestige (ding ding ding), and Memento.
MOST LIKELY: Wally Pfister for Inception.
WILD CARD: Matthew Libatique for Black Swan.
COSTUME DESIGN:
Bearing in mind that The Young Victoria won last year, I backed The King's Speech. And your wallet told me to tell you that you should too.
MOST LIKELY: The King's Speech.
WILD CARD: True Grit.
DIRECTING:
The Academy is all about David Fincher, and I am too. But to be fair, the Academy is all about the Coen brothers too. Darren Aronofsky is no slouch either. But the one-two K.O. combo of Fincher and Sorkin in The Social Network seals the deal in this category for me.
MOST LIKELY: David Fincher for The Social Network.
WILD CARD: The Coen Brothers for True Grit OR Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
DO NOT EVEN GET ME STARTED ABOUT WHY WAITING FOR SUPERMAN DID NOT GET NOMINATED. I was so angry when I saw that I nearly Falcon Kicked my computer. Regardless, there are two major contenders in this category, Exit Through the Gift Shop and Restrepo. As I said before, the Academy tends to vote most politically and socially rather then artistically, making Restrepo more likely than Exit Through the Gift Shop.
MOST LIKELY: Restrepo.
WILD CARD: Exit Through the Gift Shop.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT:
By far and away my weakest category, as I'm not familiar with all of the films in this category. I chose to go with the one I had heard the most about, Poster Girl.
MOST LIKELY: Poster Girl (?)
WILD CARD: Any.
FILM EDITING:
Another weak category for me, but easier to judge based on the way the Academy tends to vote. Hurt Locker won this last year, making me lean towards The King's Speech for this one. However, I thought that Social Network was expertly edited as well.
MOST LIKELY: The King's Speech.
WILD CARD: The Social Network.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Relatively easy to guess, though I believe that Dogtooth is severely underappreciated.
MOST LIKELY: Biutiful.
WILD CARD: Dogtooth.
MAKEUP:
Enjoy another Oscar, Rick Baker.
MOST LIKELY: Rick Baker for The Wolfman.
WILD CARD: Rick Baker for The Wolfman.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE):
Okay, here's where I have to remind MYSELF that it isn't the People's Choice Awards. I am all about some Hans Zimmer (see Guy Ritchie's Sherlock Holmes, 2009), and most avid movie fans are too. However, Pixar's Up won last year, over Hans Zimmer's score in Sherlock Holmes, putting me in an unusual position. Do I go with my instinct and choose Zimmer? Or do I think it over and choose Social Network? Zimmer, don't fail me this year.
MOST LIKELY: Hans Zimmer for Inception.
WILD CARD: Trent Reznor for The Social Network.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG):
It was brought to my attention yesterday or the day before that the man who composed "If I Rise" in 127 Hours also composed the song that won for "Slumdog Millionaire". So yeah, there you go.
MOST LIKELY: "If I Rise" in 127 Hours.
WILD CARD: "Coming Home" in Country Strong.
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED):
Another weak category for me, BUT I do know that Day and Night was by Pixar!
MOST LIKELY: Day and Night.
WILD CARD: Any.
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION):
I haven't seen any of these shorts, but I've researched all of them, and Wish 143 looks like the winner based on traditional Academy votes.
MOST LIKELY: Wish 143.
WILD CARD: Na Wewe.
SOUND EDITING:
I'd like to say Tron:Legacy, but my gut tells me it will get snubbed.
MOST LIKELY: Inception.
WILD CARD: Tron:Legacy.
SOUND MIXING:
Inception had better editing, but Social Network had a better mix.
MOST LIKELY: The Social Network.
WILD CARD: Inception.
VISUAL EFFECTS:
Avatar won Visual Effects last year, validating CGI. Therefore, I choose Inception.
MOST LIKELY: Inception.
WILD CARD: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY):
*ring ring* *ring ring* Hello, Aaron Sorkin? Hi, it's the Academy. Still coming over for dinner next Thursday? Yes, you're getting the Oscar, don't be ridiculous. Okay, great, see you then.
MOST LIKELY: Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network.
WILD CARD: The Coen Brothers for True Grit.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY):
As much as it pains me, Nolan gets snubbed at the Oscars every year it seems like. So, for the sake of the bet, I have to choose The King's Speech. I'm saving a wild card for The Kids Are All Right for the whole Prop 8 repeal thing as well.
MOST LIKELY: The King's Speech.
WILD CARD: The Kids Are All Right OR Inception.
I hope this helps everyone with their bets, and/or inspires you to go out and make some bets!
See you next time.
